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Bull Revival Targets Record Highs?
Commodity
Summary:
U.S. retail sales missed estimates yesterday, materially boosting market-implied odds of a December Fed rate cut and likely extending gold's upward trend.
Buy
PENDINGXAUUSD
EXP
4120.00
Entry Price
4340.00
TP
4080.00
SL
4185.78 +27.90 +0.67%
--
Point
PENDING
4080.00
SL
CLOSING
4120.00
Entry Price
4340.00
TP
Fundamentals
U.S. retail sales missed the consensus estimate by a wide margin, signaling that consumer momentum is even softer than markets had feared. The deceleration feeds directly into inflation and growth expectations: weaker household spending dampens the rebound risk for price pressures, prompting investors to price in an earlier and/or larger Fed easing move, which compresses both nominal and real yields. Over the past few days the implied probability of a December cut has surged—CME FedWatch and futures now assign a markedly higher chance to that scenario. This rapid repricing of the rate path is the key catalyst behind gold's latest spike.
Moreover, liquidity injections and portfolio rebalancing are amplifying gold's price swings. A softer USD lowers the purchasing cost for non-dollar-based investors, while safe-haven and hedging demand rebound as macro uncertainty rises. Inflows into institutions and selected ETFs provide a second-layer bid for the metal. With U.S. nominal yields in a downtrend, the opportunity cost of holding a zero-coupon asset declines; this narrative is mutually reinforced by both headline catalysts and flow dynamics, sustaining gold's near-term strength.
It should be noted that the current uptrend is highly contingent on the continuity of data and expectations. Should subsequent retail, employment, or inflation data show signs of recovery, or should Fed officials adopt a hawkish tone, market bets on a December rate cut could rapidly shrink, with a rebound in the dollar and yields exerting downward pressure on gold.
Technical Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, a textbook symmetrical triangle has formed as successive highs drift lower and lows edge higher. Price is now pressing against the upper trendline resistance. Momentum appears to be waning. A lacklustre test—i.e., no decisive close above the trendline on materially expanded volume—would favour a near-term rotation back toward the lower bound of the triangle. Conversely, a high-volume breakout and sustained hold above the trendline would open extension room, with 4,250 the first objective and 4,300 the next acceleration target.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 4120.00
Target Price: 4340.00
Stop Loss: 4080.00
Valid Until: December 10, 2025, 23:00:00
Support: 4146.55/4110.99
Resistance Levels: 4245.09/4300.00
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