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      BTC/USD attempts a breakout after prolonged range compression

      Gerik

      Commodity

      Summary:

      Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading around $88,300–$88,700, rebounding from recent consolidation within a $85,000–$90,000 range as holiday liquidity remains thin...

      Buy

      BTC-USDT

      EXP
      PENDING

      88300.0

      Entry Price

      90500.0

      TP

      87450.0

      SL

      87844.5 -100.5 -0.11%

      --

      Point

      PENDING

      87450.0

      SL

      CLOSING

      88300.0

      Entry Price

      90500.0

      TP

      Overview

      BTC’s price action toward the end of 2025 reflects a crypto market struggling to build directional conviction. Bitcoin’s price is holding around $88,000–$88,650 in live feeds, suggesting a mild recovery from recent dips near $87,000 support amid thin year-end volumes. The broader macro picture is mixed: risk assets, including equities, finished slightly lower on Fed minutes indicating neutral rate bias, which tends to support safe-haven and USD strength rather than aggressive risk appetite. However, Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets means breakouts or breakdowns in traditional markets sway crypto flows quickly.
      Institutional behavior is a key fundamental driver right now: significant Bitcoin ETF inflows have re-emerged, pointing to renewed demand from larger investors and adding a structural bullish narrative amid short-term consolidation. 

      Market sentiment

      Sentiment in BTC remains cautiously bullish on dips rather than aggressively directional. The market has spent the past week trading sideways, fluctuating between $85k and $90k, which indicates participants are balancing between short-term profit taking and strategic accumulation near perceived value zones. In this context, defenders of support near $87k–$87.5k have prevented deeper breakdowns, suggesting institutions and skilled traders may be accumulating, especially as holiday flows remain light and easy to trigger false breaks. The narrow range compression itself can lead to strong moves once a breakout occurs. 

      Technical analysis

      BTC/USD attempts a breakout after prolonged range compression_1
      On the M15 chart, BTC is hovering above recent intraday swing lows, with price action near the Bollinger Band lower area but showing tentative rejection off that lower range. This positioning indicates sellers may be exhausted for now. If BTC can push and close above the BB mid-band (20 SMA) with a clean close above dynamic resistance, it would mark the first short-term bullish structure shift after days of range trading.
      Ichimoku (9,26,52) on M15: price currently sits near the Kijun-sen and is attempting to reclaim this level. A sustained break above it with subsequent candles closing above the cloud boundary would imply a shift from short-term indecision to renewed buyer control.
      Stochastic (5,3,3) is climbing from the lower regions and is on the verge of a bullish crossover, which often precedes upward momentum in compressed environments like the current range. This oscillator behavior coupled with proximity to dynamic support suggests that dip-buyers are active and impatient sellers have largely exited.
      Key levels shaping the technical setup: support near $87,000–$87,300 (recent lows and psychological anchor) and resistance near $89,000–$89,500 (upper range boundary and short-term supply). A break above $89,000 on strong momentum validated by these indicators turning bullish would significantly increase the odds of continuation.

      Trade recommendation 

      Entry: $88,300–$88,550 (buy on breakout above BB mid-band and Ichimoku resistance on M15 with clean consecutive closes)
      Take Profit: $89,850 (first target at prior short-term range highs) then $90,500 if momentum sustains and buyers push the breakout further
      Stop Loss: $87,450 (below recent support cluster and the lower Ichimoku boundary, invalidating the breakout on decisive downside)
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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