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Breaks Below USD 4,600 — Trend Weakening or a Temporary Correction?
Summary:
Higher inflation pressure from elevated energy costs is weighing on gold prices.
Buy
CLOSEDXAUUSD
End Time
4632.82
Entry Price
5002.00
TP
4460.00
SL
4661.39 +12.67 +0.27%
2729
Points
Profit
4460.00
SL
4660.11
CLOSING
4632.82
Entry Price
5002.00
TP
Fundamentals
Amid a stronger USD and cooling market expectations for near-term rate cuts, gold prices fell below the USD 4,600 mark, with the broader trend coming under clear pressure. The core logic driving this correction is not a single factor, but rather the combined impact of monetary policy expectations and rising energy prices.
First, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its Wednesday policy meeting, in line with market expectations, but its policy tone was cautious. It explicitly stated that “higher energy prices will push up overall inflation,” reinforcing expectations for “higher rates for longer” and weakening the likelihood of rate cuts in the near term. As a result, the stronger USD has created direct headwinds for gold.
Second, rising oil prices have become a key variable in the current macro environment. The renewed escalation in Middle East tensions has led markets to gradually price in a risk premium from supply disruptions and transportation bottlenecks, pushing energy prices higher. Although geopolitical tensions typically support gold through safe-haven demand, the market is focusing more on the transmission effect of energy inflation this time: higher oil prices lift inflation expectations, which in turn raise real rate expectations, creating a material bearish factor for a non-yielding asset like gold.
From a policy perspective, the Fed’s current stance can be summarized as “cautious observation, rather than rushing to act.” Policymakers have acknowledged that inflation may come in higher than previously expected, but with economic growth still resilient and the labor market remaining stable, there is no immediate urgency to change policy. As a result, monetary policy is likely to remain data-dependent in the near term, with the main focus on the inflation path and external risk developments.
Technical Analysis
The key market question now is when gold selling pressure will stabilize.
The USD 4,600 level has important technical significance. It corresponds not only to the 100-day moving average, but also to the area around the 20-week moving average, and can be viewed as the minimum floor for maintaining the medium-term uptrend.
Therefore, whether the daily close can stabilize above this level will become the key dividing line for the next move:
If the close can hold above this area, gold may stage a temporary bottom and rebuild upward momentum;
If the level is broken decisively, it may indicate damage to the trend structure and open the door to further downside.
From a trading perspective, investors can position around this key zone on both sides and adjust strategies flexibly according to price reactions to the level.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 4560
Target Price: 5002
Stop Loss: 4460
Valid Until: 2026-04-18 23:55:00
Support: 4562 / 4489 / 4403
Resistance: 4687 / 4760 / 4839
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