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Breaking Through 40.00 Is Imminent
Commodity
Summary:
Silver remains volatile at elevated levels driven by both safe-haven demand and industrial consumption; however, technical analysis indicates a continued bullish trend, with a strategic approach to go long at the lows following a correction.
Buy
CLOSEDXAGUSD
End Time
38.225
Entry Price
42.400
TP
37.400
SL
36.704 -0.406 -1.09%
825
Points
Loss
37.400
SL
37.382
CLOSING
38.225
Entry Price
42.400
TP
Fundamentals
As of today's European trading session, silver is trading around 38.10, entering a consolidation phase after nearly four days of correction. Year-to-date, silver has gained 34.4%, making it one of the top-performing precious metals in the sector.
From a macroeconomic perspective, escalating global trade tensions and increased fiscal deficit pressures have heightened safe-haven demand. According to the latest Reuters survey, analysts forecast silver could reach nearly US$40 per ounce this year, representing a 32% increase, primarily driven by ongoing concerns over geopolitical risks and U.S. debt ceiling negotiations. Meanwhile, although the U.S. Dollar Index has recently retreated slightly, it remains elevated, exerting upward pressure on the cost for overseas buyers of U.S. dollar-denominated silver, which may impose short-term resistance.
Secondly, industrial demand continues to exhibit robust growth, underpinning the structural supply-demand gap in silver. According to the MoneyWeek report, demand from the renewable energy (photovoltaic), artificial intelligence hardware, and defense sectors has significantly increased. Between 2016 and 2024, global industrial consumption has risen from 993.3 million ounces to 1.16 billion ounces, while actual supply has grown only marginally, resulting in a fifth consecutive year of annual supply deficits. Additionally, the world's largest silver-consuming countries, India and China, have experienced seasonal declines in jewelry and investment demand prior to the start of the monsoon season; however, long-term purchases by central banks and sovereign wealth funds remain active, providing a price floor for silver.
Furthermore, capital flows in the financial markets also demonstrate a bullish trend. In June, net inflows into Indian silver ETFs reached 2.004 billion rupees, a 2.5-fold increase from May, indicating heightened enthusiasm among local institutional and retail investors for precious metal assets. In the European and American markets, although silver ETF holdings have shown slight fluctuations, they still recorded approximately a 4% net increase year-to-date, reflecting cautious optimism among institutional investors regarding the silver market outlook.
Technical Analysis
In the 1D timeframe, silver has recently achieved multiple new highs, demonstrating a robust bullish momentum. The overall SMA system remains in a bullish alignment, further confirming the expectation of a sustained medium- to long-term uptrend.
Currently, last week's silver price briefly approached the psychological level of 39.50, nearing the 40.00 mark. Profit-taking pressure increased, weakening the bullish momentum, resulting in a four-day correction. Yesterday, the price declined to 37.88 but formed a bullish reversal signal after a daily close. This level is situated above the previous upward trendline and the 20-day SMA, creating a confluence of support that enhances the likelihood of continued upward movement in the near term.
Trading Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 38.00
Target Price: 42.40
Stop Loss: 37.40
Valid Until: August 12, 2025 23:00:00
Support: 37.88, 37.48
Resistance: 39.51, 40.00
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