On Wednesday, Federal Reserve official Williams expressed support for interest rate cuts but did not convey confidence in a reduction at the September policy meeting. He indicated that policymakers need to monitor economic data during the upcoming meeting. "Risks are becoming more balanced; we just need to observe how the data evolves," Williams stated. Meanwhile, traders assign an 87% probability of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. In the Eurozone, the risk of an early general election in France is increasing, constraining the euro's upward potential. Earlier this week, French Prime Minister François Bayrou called for a confidence vote on his €44 billion budget plan scheduled for September 8. In response, opposition parties are expected to oppose the confidence vote, potentially leading to an early parliamentary election in France.

Regarding tariffs, the U.S. has imposed tariffs of up to 50% on Indian imports, effective Wednesday, escalating tensions in U.S.-India relations. These measures include a 25% punitive tariff on oil imports from Russia. India plans to provide financial assistance to affected exporters and is committed to trade diversification by expanding into regions such as China, Latin America, and the Middle East, with key commodities like steel, aluminum, and passenger vehicles exempt from tariffs. Federal Reserve Board member Cook announced plans to initiate legal action over President Trump's attempt to dismiss her—prompting renewed debate over the independence of the Federal Reserve. Her attorneys argue that Trump's attempt is unfounded, while the Fed emphasizes that her 14-year term safeguards the long-term interests of the American people. The Federal Reserve stated that, unless a court rules otherwise before the September 16-17 meeting, her term will remain unchanged. Market reactions included stock market volatility and a weakening dollar, supporting the view of a strategic downward trend for the U.S. dollar.

In the 1D timeframe, the MACD indicator for the EURUSD shows a death cross between the MACD line and signal line, indicating waning bullish momentum. The ascending momentum histogram is gradually diminishing, with lower highs observed, while the RSI remains around 50, also exhibiting decreasing peaks. The price has not reached new highs and forms a head and shoulders top pattern, signaling a potential bearish divergence. In the short term, the market is likely to consolidate or decline. Currently, the price is supported by the middle Bollinger Band and the EMA50; holding above these levels could sustain an upward trend. A break below these supports may lead to further declines toward the lower Bollinger Band and the EMA200, approximately at 1.146 and 1.123 respectively. In the 1W timeframe, the price is oscillating upward along the EMA12 with a reduced slope, RSI at around 60, and a double top formation. The MACD shows a high-level death cross, with the MACD line and signal line approaching the zero-axis from below, indicating an ongoing correction. A break below the EMA12 could push the price down toward the middle Bollinger Band or the EMA50, around 1.14 and 1.118. It is recommended to go short at the highs in the short term.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.164

Target Price: 1.14

Stop Loss: 1.183

Support: 1.159, 1.145, 1.14

Resistance: 1.17, 1.183, 1.19