News
7x24
Quotes
Economic Calendar
Video
Data
- Names
- Latest
- Prev.
Bearish Trend Poised to Resume Following Technical Upside Retracement
Forex
Economic
Summary:
A transition into a negative histogram, coupled with a bearish signal line crossover, would provide the necessary technical validation for a sustained move to the downside.
Sell
TradingAUDUSD
EXP
0.70470
Entry Price
0.69740
TP
0.71100
SL
0.70695 -0.00015 -0.02%
0
Point
Flat
0.69740
TP
CLOSING
0.70470
Entry Price
0.71100
SL
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely anticipated to implement another 25-basis point hike to the cash rate, which would elevate the target to 4.10%. However, the upcoming decision is shaping up to be exceptionally tight, as market participants are far from reaching a consensus on the move. Currently, cash rate futures reflect approximately a 53% probability of another increase, highlighting the significant uncertainty surrounding the central bank's next step.
Persistent inflationary pressures remain the primary driver of this internal debate. Headline inflation in Australia continues to hover at an elevated 3.8% year-over-year, and this figure does not yet account for the potential impact of a fresh energy shock. Furthermore, internal RBA modeling indicates a positive output gap, suggesting that the domestic economy continues to operate at or above full capacity, with structural constraints becoming increasingly evident across various sectors.
On the external front, Australia’s export structure underscores the critical role of the energy sector in its broader economic health. During 2025, mineral fuels—including crude oil—accounted for approximately 27% of the nation’s total exports. This solidified fuels as the second most significant export category, trailing only ores, slag, and ash. However, this heavy reliance also introduces systemic risks for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Should oil prices continue their upward trajectory, fueling concerns of a global economic slowdown, risk sentiment could deteriorate sharply. In such a "risk-off" environment, the AUD could face significant bearish pressure, potentially offsetting any support derived from high commodity prices.
In Washington, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has provided new insights into how the administration is quantifying the energy risks associated with the escalating confrontation with Iran. According to Bessent, any coordinated intervention to stabilize global energy prices will be heavily contingent upon the duration and severity of the regional conflict. He specifically highlighted the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint for the global crude trade, warning that the market could face a staggering supply deficit estimated between 10 and 14 million barrels if disruptions persist.
On the domestic front, recent macroeconomic data continues to reflect moderate growth in U.S. industrial activity. Industrial production rose by 0.2% month-over-month in February. While this represents a deceleration from the 0.7% surge recorded in January, it slightly outperformed the market consensus of 0.1%. Simultaneously, capacity utilization was reported at 76.3%, matching the previous month’s revised figures and marginally exceeding analyst estimates of 76.2%.
These resilient figures have prompted investors to aggressively recalibrate their expectations for Federal Reserve policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point rate cut in June has collapsed to 23.6%, down from over 51% just one month ago. Consequently, financial markets are now pricing in a solitary rate reduction by year-end, a hawkish shift from the two cuts previously anticipated by the street.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, AUD/USD executed a bullish corrective move, ascending from the 0.6978 floor to a local peak of 0.7076. This zone is of high technical significance as it aligns closely with the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level. Notably, the price action met significant resistance at the 200-period Moving Average (MA), currently situated at 0.7063 on the 1-hour (H1) chart.
With the 100-period MA tracking just above at 0.7091, the pair is currently trapped beneath a heavy cluster of dynamic resistance. This rejection suggests that the corrective phase may have reached its conclusion, potentially clearing the path for a resumption of the primary bearish trend.
Our analysis of momentum oscillators reinforces this bearish bias. The RSI recently struck the 69 level, approaching overbought territory and signaling that the bullish recovery is nearing exhaustion. Simultaneously, while the MACD still shows a bullish histogram, the bars are visibly diminishing in size.
The signal lines are currently oscillating just above the neutral threshold. A transition into a negative histogram, coupled with a bearish signal line crossover, would provide the necessary technical validation for a sustained move to the downside.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 0.7048
Target price: 0.6974
Stop loss: 0.7110
Validity: Mar 27, 2026 15:00:00
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
Quick Access to 7x24
Quick Access to More Editor-selected Real-time News
Exclusive video for free
FastBull project team is dedicated to create exclusive videos
Real-time Quotes
View more faster market quotes
More comprehensive macro data and economic indicators
Members have access to entire historical data, guests can only view the last 4 years
Member-only Database
Comprehensive forex, commodity, and equity market data
English
English
العربية
繁體中文
简体中文
Bahasa Melayu
Bahasa Indonesia
ภาษาไทย
Tiếng Việt
Copyright © 2026 FastBull Ltd
Home News Columns 7x24 Economic Calendar Quotes Video Data WarehouseAnalysis AI Signal Pro User Agreement Privacy Policy About Us
Risk Disclosure
The risk of loss in trading financial assets such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs or crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.
No consideration to invest should be made without thoroughly conduct your own due diligence, or consult with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you, since we have not known your financial condition and investment needs. It is possible that our financial information might have latency or contains inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your transactions and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital lost.
Without getting the permission from the website, you are not allow to copy the website graphics, texts, or trade marks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belongs to its providers and exchange merchants.