News
7x24
Quotes
Economic Calendar
Video
Data
- Names
- Latest
- Prev.
Bearish Momentum Resumes After Correction Fails at 200 MA
Central Bank
Economic
Summary:
This technical alignment, coupled with the rejection from the 200-period MA, suggests that multiple technical factors are in place for a potential resumption of the downtrend.
Sell
CLOSEDAUDUSD
End Time
0.65364
Entry Price
0.64800
TP
0.65700
SL
0.65374 +0.00083 +0.13%
336
Points
Loss
0.64800
TP
0.65701
CLOSING
0.65364
Entry Price
0.65700
SL
Recent data from the U.S. labor market presents a mixed, but generally softening, picture. The ADP Employment Change report last week indicated that private payrolls increased by 42,000 in October, surpassing the 25,000 expectation and reversing September's 29,000 decline. However, a less encouraging trend emerged from the Challenger Job Cuts report, which revealed that U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, marking the highest monthly total since 2003. Further data showed that the U.S. lost an average of 11,250 private sector jobs in the four weeks ending October 25th, a slight improvement from the 14,250 loss recorded the prior month.
The debate among Federal Reserve officials regarding the appropriate policy stance continues to sharpen. Fed Governor Stephen Miran maintains that monetary policy is too restrictive. Conversely, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic adopted a hawkish position, cautioning that moving policy lower risks feeding the "beast of inflation." Bostic added that he does not foresee a "severe labor market recession." Notably, Bostic announced he will retire from his post in February 2026.
Despite Bostic's hawkish tone, market expectations for easing have increased slightly. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% at the December meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, has risen to 68% from 62.4% observed on Monday.
In Australia, inflation is running stronger than expected. The Australian economy saw inflation grow at a rate of 1.3% in the third quarter of the year, a significant acceleration from the 0.7% growth observed in the second quarter. This hot data strengthens the resolve of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep policy tight.
RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser reaffirmed the central bank's need to maintain stable interest rates until officials gain confidence that inflation will sustainably return to the target. Speaking at a UBS conference in Sydney, Hauser stated that achieving the inflation target "will require policy to be restrictive enough to close the output gap." He added that the economy continues to "run above its potential," which effectively limits the room for "near-term rate cuts." Looking ahead, investors will focus on the Australian employment data for October, due on Thursday, which is expected to show the economy added 20K new workers, up from 14.9K in September.
Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is currently undergoing a bearish rejection from the 200-period Moving Average (MA) on the 4-hour chart, which sits at 0.6538. The price reached a brief local high of 0.6550 before turning lower.
If the price manages to close decisively below this 200-period MA, it could signal the onset of a deeper downward correction. This level is highly significant as it coincides with the 0.50 and 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement levels , a convergence that increases the probability that the most recent upward movement was merely a technical correction and that the primary bearish impulse is ready to resume from this zone.
The RSI is currently at 57, remaining out of overbought territory. However, it displays subtle bearish divergences when compared to previous higher price levels where the RSI reading was much lower than the current one. This technical alignment, coupled with the rejection from the 200-period MA, suggests that multiple technical factors are in place for a potential resumption of the downtrend.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 0.6536
Target price: 0.6480
Stop loss: 0.6570
Validity: Nov 21, 2025 15:00:00
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
Quick Access to 7x24
Quick Access to More Editor-selected Real-time News
Exclusive video for free
FastBull project team is dedicated to create exclusive videos
Real-time Quotes
View more faster market quotes
More comprehensive macro data and economic indicators
Members have access to entire historical data, guests can only view the last 4 years
Member-only Database
Comprehensive forex, commodity, and equity market data
English
English
العربية
繁體中文
简体中文
Bahasa Melayu
Bahasa Indonesia
ภาษาไทย
Tiếng Việt
Copyright © 2025 FastBull Ltd
Home News Columns 7x24 Economic Calendar Quotes Video Data WarehouseAnalysis AI Signal Pro User Agreement Privacy Policy About Us
Risk Disclosure
The risk of loss in trading financial assets such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs or crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.
No consideration to invest should be made without thoroughly conduct your own due diligence, or consult with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you, since we have not known your financial condition and investment needs. It is possible that our financial information might have latency or contains inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your transactions and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital lost.
Without getting the permission from the website, you are not allow to copy the website graphics, texts, or trade marks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belongs to its providers and exchange merchants.