News
7x24
Quotes
Economic Calendar
Video
Data
- Names
- Latest
- Prev.
Bearish Momentum May Have Bottomed, Setting the Stage for a Rebound
Central Bank
Economic
Summary:
This rebound suggests that the support is being defended, potentially encouraging traders to begin building long positions.
Buy
TradingUSDCHF
EXP
0.78904
Entry Price
0.80000
TP
0.78100
SL
0.79190 +0.00319 +0.40%
0
Point
Flat
0.78100
SL
CLOSING
0.78904
Entry Price
0.80000
TP
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is set to announce its next monetary policy decision on September 25, with markets widely expecting rates to remain unchanged at zero. Policymakers have recently shown greater tolerance toward a stronger Swiss franc, arguing that rising costs abroad have helped reduce the extent of its real overvaluation.
Meanwhile, the Producer and Import Price Index fell by 0.6% in August, marking a sharp annual drop of 1.8%. Broader inflation continues to sit comfortably within the SNB’s 0–2% target range, easing the urgency for further policy accommodation.
SNB President Martin Schlegel has downplayed the need for negative rates but reiterated that the central bank remains flexible and ready to adapt to evolving data. The September 25 policy meeting will be pivotal, as updated inflation forecasts and growth risks are expected to guide the bank’s future policy stance.
Across the Atlantic, the Federal Reserve acknowledged growing downside risks to the U.S. labor market, noting that while unemployment remains relatively low, it has edged slightly higher. The policy decision was not unanimous, with Governor Stephen Miran voting in favor of a more aggressive 50 basis-point cut, aligning with some analysts who had anticipated such a move.
During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked that labor demand has “softened,” while inflation remains “somewhat elevated.” He highlighted that the balance of risks has “shifted,” stressing that monetary policy is well-positioned to respond as needed, though he cautioned that the labor market is “not strong.”
Powell also dismissed speculation about a larger cut, saying there was “no broad support for a 50 basis-point cut today,” and underscored that the Fed is not rushing to ease policy further.
The Fed’s statement reiterated its concerns about downside risks to employment, while acknowledging that price pressures have increased and remain “somewhat elevated.” According to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), most officials now expect the federal funds rate to end 2025 at 3.6%, with GDP growth at 1.6% and unemployment rising to 4.5%. Inflation is projected to end the year at 3%, while core PCE is seen holding at 3.1%. Policymakers expect inflation to return to the 2% target by 2028.
U.S. Treasury yields slipped after the Fed delivered its first rate cut since December last year, sparking a rally in risk assets. Investors grew more confident that lower borrowing costs will support the U.S. economy, particularly its lagging labor market, driving Treasury yields lower across the curve.
Recent U.S. data painted a mixed picture for August. Housing Starts tumbled 8.5% month-over-month, wiping out July’s 3.4% gain, dropping to 1.307 million units from 1.429 million — the lowest level since May. Building Permits also fell by 3.7%. In contrast, Retail Sales beat expectations, climbing 0.6% versus a forecast of 0.2%, while the Control Group — a key input to GDP calculations — rose 0.7% following a 0.5% gain in July.
Technical Analysis
USD/CHF briefly dipped to 0.7831 during the volatility surrounding the Fed’s decision, pushing the RSI on the 12-hour chart down to 27 — deep in oversold territory. However, this downside move proved short-lived, as the pair rebounded and closed back above the key support level at 0.7875, which was last tested on July 1. This rebound suggests that the support is being defended, potentially encouraging traders to begin building long positions targeting the descending trendline and the psychological resistance zone around 0.8000.
The 100- and 200-period moving averages sit at 0.8018 and 0.8096 respectively, having closely tracked price throughout its downtrend. These levels could become near-term upside targets if bullish momentum strengthens. Should USD/CHF break above the descending trendline and sustain gains, the recovery could extend further. However, a pullback from these resistance levels cannot be ruled out if sellers return to defend the broader downtrend.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 0.7890
Target price: 0.8000
Stop loss: 0.7810
Validity: Sep 26, 2025 15:00:00
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
Quick Access to 7x24
Quick Access to More Editor-selected Real-time News
Exclusive video for free
FastBull project team is dedicated to create exclusive videos
Real-time Quotes
View more faster market quotes
More comprehensive macro data and economic indicators
Members have access to entire historical data, guests can only view the last 4 years
Member-only Database
Comprehensive forex, commodity, and equity market data
English
English
العربية
繁體中文
简体中文
Bahasa Melayu
Bahasa Indonesia
ภาษาไทย
Tiếng Việt
Copyright © 2025 FastBull Ltd
Home News Columns 7x24 Economic Calendar Quotes Video Data WarehouseAnalysis AI Signal Pro User Agreement Privacy Policy About Us
Risk Disclosure
The risk of loss in trading financial assets such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs or crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.
No consideration to invest should be made without thoroughly conduct your own due diligence, or consult with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you, since we have not known your financial condition and investment needs. It is possible that our financial information might have latency or contains inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your transactions and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital lost.
Without getting the permission from the website, you are not allow to copy the website graphics, texts, or trade marks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belongs to its providers and exchange merchants.