News
7x24
Quotes
Economic Calendar
Video
Data
- Names
- Latest
- Prev.
Bearish Momentum Likely to Dominate for an Extended Period
Summary:
The convergence of these Fibonacci levels with the moving average cluster suggests that the recent advance is a corrective retracement rather than a structural trend reversal.
Sell
PENDINGUSDCAD
EXP
1.37170
Entry Price
1.35150
TP
1.38000
SL
1.36057 -0.00632 -0.46%
--
Point
PENDING
1.35150
TP
CLOSING
1.37170
Entry Price
1.38000
SL
In the United States, the publication of January’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) has been rescheduled to February 11th, a direct consequence of the partial government shutdown. Meanwhile, the latest University of Michigan (UoM) survey indicates a budding improvement in consumer sentiment, though the underlying data necessitates a cautious interpretation. Survey director Joanne Hsu highlighted a significant structural divergence, noting that sentiment "soared for consumers with the largest stock portfolios while remaining at discouraging levels for those without equity holdings."
A cooling labor market, evidenced by a decline in job openings, an uptick in layoffs per the Challenger report, and a notable surge in weekly jobless claims, has reinforced market convictions regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Simultaneously, the UoM Consumer Sentiment Index for February climbed to 57.3 from 56.4, outperforming the 55 forecast. While one-year inflation expectations moderated to 3.5% from 4.0%, long-term five-year expectations edged slightly higher to 3.4%. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly warned that the prevailing "low-hiring, low-layoff" environment could rapidly transition into a "no-hiring and more layoffs" scenario, emphasizing that workers are keenly aware of how quickly labor conditions can erode.
Furthermore, Fed Governor Philip Jefferson signaled that future policy will remain strictly data-dependent, maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook with a 2.2% GDP growth forecast for the year. Jefferson reiterated that the Fed’s commitment to price stability is mitigating risks and suggested that monetary policy is nearing a neutral stance, viewing the 2025 tariffs as a transitory price level adjustment.
Parallel to these developments, the Bank of Canada (BoC) elected to maintain its overnight rate at 2.25% late last month, signaling its intention to hold this level at least through 2026 unless the economic outlook shifts dramatically. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged the resilience of the Canadian economy but cautioned that risks remain elevated due to uncertainties surrounding the renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement. With inflation hovering near the 2% target and the labor market exhibiting continued slack, the BoC views its current policy stance as an appropriate anchor as the economy navigates structural adjustments linked to U.S. protectionism and slowing population growth.
In the energy sector, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is staging a recovery, trading near $64.00 per barrel after moderate losses. Despite this rebound, WTI remains on track to snap its six-week winning streak, weighed down by diplomatic expectations regarding a potential summit between U.S. and Iranian officials.
Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair has recently experienced a bullish impulse that brought the price toward a critical technical intersection. The 4-hour chart shows the price testing the 100-period Moving Average at 1.3717, with the 200-period MA providing an additional layer of overhead resistance just above at 1.3747.
This recovery originated after the pair struck a fresh yearly low of 1.3480 on January 29th. However, this upward move is currently struggling within the 0.50 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zones. The convergence of these Fibonacci levels with the moving average cluster suggests that the recent advance is a corrective retracement rather than a structural trend reversal. This increases the probability that a new bearish cycle is currently in development.
Our momentum analysis via the MACD reinforces this bearish thesis. The histogram has exhausted its bullish territory, transitioning from green bars to red bars that are now gaining significant depth. While the signal lines are still situated marginally above the neutral zone, they are poised to cross back into bearish territory, which would significantly bolster the case for a move toward the 1.3515 support area.
Unless the price manages a decisive and sustained breakout above the 1.3739 resistance level, the technical path of least resistance remains to the downside. Consequently, short-side positions are favored as the pair looks to resume its primary bearish trend.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 1.3717
Target price: 1.3515
Stop loss: 1.3800
Validity: Feb 19, 2026 15:00:00
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
Quick Access to 7x24
Quick Access to More Editor-selected Real-time News
Exclusive video for free
FastBull project team is dedicated to create exclusive videos
Real-time Quotes
View more faster market quotes
More comprehensive macro data and economic indicators
Members have access to entire historical data, guests can only view the last 4 years
Member-only Database
Comprehensive forex, commodity, and equity market data
English
English
العربية
繁體中文
简体中文
Bahasa Melayu
Bahasa Indonesia
ภาษาไทย
Tiếng Việt
Copyright © 2026 FastBull Ltd
Home News Columns 7x24 Economic Calendar Quotes Video Data WarehouseAnalysis AI Signal Pro User Agreement Privacy Policy About Us
Risk Disclosure
The risk of loss in trading financial assets such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs or crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.
No consideration to invest should be made without thoroughly conduct your own due diligence, or consult with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you, since we have not known your financial condition and investment needs. It is possible that our financial information might have latency or contains inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your transactions and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital lost.
Without getting the permission from the website, you are not allow to copy the website graphics, texts, or trade marks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belongs to its providers and exchange merchants.