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Bearish Momentum Could Resume from the Trend Line
Central Bank
Economic
Summary:
The RSI’s aggressive ascent, relative to the price’s more modest gain, suggests that the bullish corrective energy may be waning.
Sell
CLOSEDEURUSD
End Time
1.16750
Entry Price
1.15350
TP
1.17100
SL
1.16616 +0.00119 +0.10%
350
Points
Loss
1.15350
TP
1.17105
CLOSING
1.16750
Entry Price
1.17100
SL
Discussions between Washington and Beijing remain protracted, stemming from China's introduction of export controls on rare earth elements and reciprocal port tariffs on U.S. vessels. While U.S. President Trump initially escalated the conflict by threatening to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, he later stepped back, stating the U.S. did not want to "harm" China. Nevertheless, both countries have imposed tariffs on each other's shipping, ensuring that tensions between the nations continue to simmer.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, released ahead of the October 28-29 meeting, indicated that employment levels remained largely stable over the past few weeks, while labor demand was generally moderate across most Districts and sectors.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell maintained a subtly neutral stance in his recent speech, suggesting the economy "may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected." He reiterated the central bank’s flexible, meeting-by-meeting approach to setting interest rates. This accommodative lean was reinforced by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins, who argued that rising job market risks support further rate reductions. Collins believes that "With inflation risks somewhat more contained, but greater downside risks to employment, it seems prudent to normalize policy a bit further this year to support the labor market.”
Adding to the mixed economic picture, the NFIB Business Optimism Index unexpectedly fell 2 points to 98.8, while the NFIB Uncertainty Index surged to 100, highlighting significant apprehension among small businesses. The Fed is set to receive a critical update with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on October 24th, despite the ongoing government shutdown.
In the Eurozone, Industrial Production fell by 1.2% in August (month-on-month). While French inflation is manageable, Spanish prices surged to 3% in September, exceeding the European Central Bank's (ECB) target. Key ECB officials, including Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel and Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau, offered cautiously optimistic commentary on the region's resilience. Meanwhile, political uncertainty persists following French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's decision to suspend pension reform until 2027, raising concerns about future fiscal discipline.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is currently defined by a clear bearish trend on the 4-hour chart. This downtrend began on September 17th, when high volatility pushed the pair to a local high of 1.1919, before driving it down to a local low of 1.1542 on October 9th. Since that low, the price has staged a recovery, advancing toward the 1.1655 resistance level.
This price recovery has been accompanied by a notably strong surge in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is now positioned at 60. The RSI’s aggressive ascent, relative to the price’s more modest gain, suggests that the bullish corrective energy may be waning and a new bearish leg could develop directly from the current resistance.
The critical resistance area at 1.1658 is also aligned with the bearish trend line, significantly increasing the probability of a downward reaction from this zone. Adding further pressure, the 100- and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) on the 4-hour chart are located just above at 1.1680 and 1.1707, respectively. The 100-period MA could soon converge with the trend line, making this area a formidable ceiling. It is crucial to monitor whether these combined resistance levels are respected. Conversely, a strong break above the trend line and moving averages would invalidate the bearish structure and open the door for a renewed upward impulse.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 1.1675
Target price: 1.1535
Stop loss: 1.1710
Validity: Oct 24, 2025 15:00:00
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