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Bearish Bias Intact, Will $56.00 Hold?
Commodity
Summary:
WTI's recent price action has carved out a well-defined descending channel. Near-term momentum remains skewed to the downside.
Sell
TradingWTI
EXP
58.274
Entry Price
55.500
TP
60.100
SL
58.088 +0.112 +0.19%
0
Point
Flat
55.500
TP
CLOSING
58.274
Entry Price
60.100
SL
Fundamentals
OPEC's latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) and the most recent OPEC+ communiqué have materially shifted sentiment. The MOMR revised the global supply–demand balance, highlighting that accelerating non-OPEC supply and elevated long-term inventory levels will continue to exert downward pressure on flat prices. While OPEC+ announced a temporary pause to scheduled barrel-for-barrel increases for select months, aggregate supply growth through 2025–26 remains ample, eroding residual bullish optionality at the margin.
More decisively, the IEA's latest assessment flags the risk of a larger global surplus in 2026, with supply additions outpacing the pace of demand recovery. This verdict undercuts the structural-tightness narrative that had underpinned long positioning. The confluence of these incremental supply-side negatives and the uncertain demand rebound sets the fundamental baseline.
Meanwhile, weekly EIA statistics show commercial crude stocks have failed to sustain a consistent draw amid refinery shoulder-season maintenance and lackluster demand. Seaborne and floating inventories are also trending higher. These "invisible barrels" prompt the market to meet bullish headlines with measured short-covering rather than fresh length. In short, stocks remain bloated and supply plentiful—near-term upside catalysts are scarce.
Technical Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, WTI is printing lower highs and lower lows inside a clear descending channel. After prolonged entanglement with the EMAs, price broke lower, reinforcing bearish momentum.
Immediate resistance is now US$59.00. A failure to reclaim this level on a closing basis keeps the downtrend intact. First support is US$57.35, an accelerated break below opens the way toward the next structural floor at US$56.00.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 58.4
Target Price: 55.50
Stop Loss: 60.10
Valid Until: December 9, 2025 23:00:00
Support: 57.35/56.00
Resistance Levels: 59.00/60.00
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