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Awaiting Pullback for Long Positions, Potential to Reach New All-Time High
Cryptocurrency
Summary:
The preliminary outcomes of the U.S.-China trade deals have bolstered risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Buy
CLOSEDBTC-USDT
End Time
102590.0
Entry Price
113000.0
TP
96500.0
SL
104060.3 -493.9 -0.47%
2405
Points
Profit
96500.0
SL
102830.5
CLOSING
102590.0
Entry Price
113000.0
TP
Fundamentals
The current bullish thesis for Bitcoin is driven by two factors: the policy dividends following the U.S.-China trade deals and expectations of improved U.S. dollar liquidity. The newly enacted agreement between the two nations has reduced peak tariffs from 125% to normal levels, alleviating global supply chain pressures and mitigating U.S. import-driven inflation risks. This development indirectly supports the possibility of a Fed rate cut this year. Although the market's expectation for a September rate cut has declined to 51.8%, the core CPI has cooled for three consecutive months (April YoY: 2.3%), leaving room for a monetary policy pivot. If tonight's U.S. retail sales data (expected MoM: 0.8%) falls short of expectations, it could further reinforce easing expectations and drive a revaluation of risk assets.
Meanwhile, institutional capital flows indicate sustained long-term bullish sentiment. Despite recent single-day outflows from Bitcoin ETFs (e.g., Fidelity's FBTC saw an outflow of $96 million), cumulative inflows stay at $5 billion, with giants like BlackRock continuing to expand their holdings.
Market sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, stands at 70 (indicating "greed"), slightly down from the previous 73 but still elevated. This suggests persistent optimism among market participants but also hints at potential overheating risks.
Technical Analysis
As reflected by the daily chart, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly after a deep correction, bottoming at 77,000 and resuming its upward trajectory. It recently tested the 61.8% Fibonacci extension (105,894) but faced resistance, showing signs of a potential pullback.
Regarding key indicators, the RSI is in neutral-to-strong territory but has retreated slightly, signaling weakened short-term upward momentum. Besides, the MACD remains bullish, though the histogram height has declined. In general, these indicators suggest an increased likelihood of a short-term pullback.
Bitcoin may retreat to the 100,000 support level. However, given its recent upward trend along the 20-day moving average (MA20), a break below 100,000 could see a deeper correction toward 98,000.
Buying after a retracement is recommended.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 101000
Target price: 113000
Stop loss: 96500
Valid Until: May 29, 2025, 23:00:00
Support: 100000/97896
Resistance: 105894/109800
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