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Australian Dollar Remains Under Pressure Ahead of US Payrolls
Traders' Opinions
Summary:
AUD/USD extends its decline around 0.6930 as higher US rate expectations support the Dollar. US payrolls are the next major test for the bearish move.
Sell
TradingAUDUSD
EXP
0.69350
Entry Price
0.68650
TP
0.70000
SL
0.69730 -0.00094 -0.13%
0
Point
Flat
0.68650
TP
CLOSING
0.69350
Entry Price
0.70000
SL
The Australian Dollar remained on the defensive against the US Dollar on Friday, with AUD/USD hovering around 0.6930 and heading for a fifth consecutive session of losses. Persistent inflation concerns linked to elevated energy prices and expectations that US interest rates could remain higher continue to favour the Greenback.
Markets are now focused on the September US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could provide the next major catalyst for Federal Reserve expectations. Economists anticipate 90,000 new jobs, down substantially from 162,000 previously, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%.
A stronger-than-expected employment report could reinforce expectations that the Fed still has room to tighten monetary policy, potentially extending the Dollar's advantage. Conversely, evidence of a sharper deterioration in employment conditions could challenge the recent USD rally and give AUD/USD some room to recover.
The Australian interest-rate picture remains less straightforward. Commonwealth Bank CEO Matt Comyn believes the Reserve Bank of Australia may have completed its tightening cycle for now, although he described November's meeting as still "live", leaving another increase on the table. Much will depend on quarterly inflation figures scheduled for later this month.
Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur similarly sees inflation as uncomfortably high but expects policymakers to remain patient. Previous rate increases are still filtering through the economy, while weakness in the property sector provides another reason for the RBA to avoid rushing into additional tightening.
That contrast leaves the Australian Dollar struggling to attract meaningful monetary-policy support just as elevated US rates continue to favour the Greenback.
AUD/USD remains vulnerable while the Dollar retains its yield advantage and uncertainty surrounds whether the RBA has any further tightening left to deliver. The five-day decline highlights the strength of current selling pressure. Unless US employment data materially undermines the case for higher US rates, rebounds in the Aussie are likely to remain limited.
Technical Analysis
AUD/USD continues to trade with a heavy downside bias on the 4-hour chart, with the pair hovering near 0.6935 after a prolonged retreat from its September highs. The broader price structure remains decisively bearish, as successive support levels have given way and rebounds have repeatedly been met by fresh selling.
The latest bounce from below 0.6900 has brought the pair back toward the 0.6960–0.6970 area, but this former support zone now represents an important overhead barrier. Failure to reclaim it keeps sellers firmly in command and increases the likelihood that the recent recovery is merely a temporary correction within the wider decline.
Renewed weakness could initially drag AUD/USD back toward 0.6890. Below there, attention shifts to the 0.6860–0.6870 demand area. A convincing breakdown through this floor would open the door toward 0.6800, before potentially extending the decline toward the chart's projected objective around 0.6760.
Alternatively, a sustained push through 0.6970 would give buyers some breathing room and expose 0.7000. Even then, the pair would need to recover above the 0.7080 region to produce a more meaningful change in the prevailing bearish structure.
For now, price action continues to favour downside continuation, particularly while AUD/USD remains capped beneath the recently broken 0.6960–0.6970 zone.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
SELL AUD/USD
ENTRY PRICE: 0.6935
STOP LOSS: 0.7000
TAKE PROFIT: 0.6865
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