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AUD/USD under pressure
Forex
Economic
Summary:
As of now, AUD/USD trades around 0.6610–0.6620. Despite recent Aussie strength, a mix of firm domestic Aussie inflation and hawkish bias from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) which is expected to hold rates at 3.60% through 2026 may limit AUD gains...
Sell
PENDINGAUDUSD
EXP
0.66100
Entry Price
0.65400
TP
0.66500
SL
0.66383 +0.00292 +0.44%
--
Point
PENDING
0.65400
TP
CLOSING
0.66100
Entry Price
0.66500
SL
Overview
AUD/USD briefly rose above 0.6600, driven by commodity strength and some optimism about global risk sentiment. But the backdrop is turning ambiguous. Recent Australian data show household spending surged by 1.3% in October the largest rise in nearly two years which pushes up inflation risk and could force the RBA to keep monetary policy tighter for longer. Markets now expect the RBA to maintain the cash rate at 3.60% through 2026 rather than cut.
On the US side, the dollar (USD) had weakened recently due to dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed), but that could reverse if upcoming data surprises to the upside or if risk sentiment shifts giving USD a rebound potential, which would weigh on AUD/USD.
This backdrop limited upside for AUD, possible USD bounce, and sticky inflation increases the risk that the recent AUD strength is unsustainable.
Market sentiment
Sentiment seems to be re-assessing the Aussie rally. On one hand, investors had been supporting AUD via risk-on flows and commodity tailwinds. On the other, rising domestic inflation and hawkish RBA expectations have injected caution. Some traders may now view recent highs as a short-term peak rather than the start of a strong uptrend.
Globally, the USD remains vulnerable, but with markets on edge ahead of major US inflation data, any surprises might spark a USD rebound. If that happens, risk assets including AUD could be hit. The mixed sentiment around rate expectations and global risk makes AUD/USD more prone to reversal than conviction buying.
Technical analysis
On M15, AUD/USD’s recent climb toward and just above 0.6600 likely pushed price near the upper band of a 20-period Bollinger channel, suggesting overextension. If price fails to sustain above the mid-band (likely near 0.6580–0.6590) and begins to show hesitation (small candles, long upper wicks), that often signals a mean-reversion move downward.
Given the tougher macro outlook for AUD and potential USD strength, the pair may re-test support zones near 0.6560–0.6540 (lower Bollinger band / prior congestion). A breakdown below those could open deeper levels (0.6510–0.6480) if risk sentiment deteriorates.
Ichimoku on M15 would likely reflect a stretched up-move: price could be far above Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen, with lagging span warning of weak support below setting up a context where a “pullback to equilibrium” is plausible.
If we overlay a momentum oscillator (e.g. stochastic or RSI) on M15, it's reasonable to expect overbought conditions from the recent rally increasing the odds of a short-term bearish correction.
Trade idea
Entry: 0.661
Take Profit: 0.6550–0.6540
Stop Loss: 0.6645–0.6650
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