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AUD/USD slips toward 0.6450
Forex
Summary:
AUD/USD is trading around 0.6450–0.6460 after a multi-day grind lower, while the US Dollar Index is holding just above the 100.0 handle. The pair’s near-term direction is being shaped by a firm but not explosive dollar, an RBA that is on hold at 3.60% but sounding cautious...
Sell
CLOSEDAUDUSD
End Time
0.64600
Entry Price
0.64000
TP
0.64900
SL
0.64942 +0.00256 +0.40%
300
Points
Loss
0.64000
TP
0.64903
CLOSING
0.64600
Entry Price
0.64900
SL
Overview
The macro mix leans mildly against the Aussie despite a “higher for longer” RBA. Official data show AUD/USD trading near 0.6453–0.6458 on 25/11, extending a slow decline from the mid-0.65s over the past week.
The RBA kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.60% at its 5 November meeting and its Statement on Monetary Policy stressed that inflation is likely to stay somewhat higher than previously thought, implying that cuts will be cautious and data-dependent.
That stance is fundamentally AUD-supportive in isolation, but it is being offset by global drivers. The US Dollar Index is still orbiting the 100.0 region, with recent prints around 100.0–100.2, signalling that the Fed’s late-October cut has not triggered a sustained dollar down-trend. At the same time, broader narratives around a patchy Chinese recovery and softer Chinese demand for Australian commodities continue to cap Aussie upside and keep the currency trading near the lower half of its multi-month range.
When you put these elements together, you get a currency that is not collapsing but is struggling to rally against a dollar that still offers yield and safe-haven appeal, which justifies a tactical bearish bias in AUD/USD on intraday timeframes.
Market sentiment
The sentiment picture around the Aussie is fragile rather than outright panicked. Recent reports describe AUD “blowing hot and cold” with shifts in global risk appetite, trading inside a well-defined multi-month range where risk-off days quickly push it back below 0.6500.
Yesterday, AUD/USD even dipped below 0.6450 as China–Japan tensions around Taiwan flared, underlining how quickly geopolitical headlines can translate into AUD selling when the market is already nervous about China. At the same time, the RBA minutes and local labour data have reinforced the idea that Australian rates will probably stay relatively high into 2026, which prevents a one-way capitulation and encourages traders to fade extremes rather than chase breakouts.
On the dollar side, DXY holding a tight 99.9–100.2 band keeps the greenback “firm but not aggressive”: strong enough to lean on high-beta FX like AUD, but not so strong that we see panic short-covering.
In that environment, discretionary accounts often choose relative trades where the macro story is asymmetric at the margin: an Aussie that depends heavily on a still-wobbly China versus a dollar that remains underpinned by yield and safe-haven demand.
Technical analysis
The 15-minute structure aligns well with a sell-the-rally plan. Intraday data for 25/11 show a daily high near 0.6470 and a low near 0.6445, with spot currently sitting closer to the middle of that range.
On Bollinger Bands (20,0,2), price has been trading below or around the mid-line rather than hugging the upper band, and short bounces toward the 20-period moving average have repeatedly stalled near the 0.6465–0.6470 pocket.
That pattern of failing at the mid-line after lower-band tests is typical of a controlled down-swing where sellers are still in charge but are being selective about entry levels. The Ichimoku setup with parameters 9,26,52 shows AUD/USD either inside or just under the M15 Kumo, with the cloud sloping gently downward and the top of the cloud clustering near the same 0.6465–0.6470 zone.
Tenkan-sen is at or slightly below Kijun-sen, which tells you that momentum remains tilted lower even when price briefly pokes into the cloud. In practice, this turns the M15 Kumo into a dynamic resistance band that overlaps with the Bollinger mid-line, creating a clear technical “ceiling” for intraday rallies. Stochastic (5,3,3) has already cycled down from overbought territory after a modest bounce and is now turning lower again from somewhere around the 60–50 area, which is exactly the kind of mid-range roll-over you want to see when planning a fresh short: it signals that upside momentum has faded before price could break above the cloud.
As long as price continues to respect the 0.6465–0.6470 cap and M15 candles close back below the cloud top, the path of least resistance remains toward another probe of the recent lows around 0.6445 and potentially into the 0.6400–0.6420 congestion from earlier in the month.
Trade Recommendations
Entry: 0.6460
TP: 0.6400
SL: 0.6490
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