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AUD/USD Eyes 0.7180 as Fed Hike Bets Retreat
Traders' Opinions
Summary:
AUD/USD remains firm in the mid-0.7000s, approaching its two-month high at 0.7088 as weak US employment data weighs on the Dollar. Attention now turns to Tuesday’s RBA decision, where rates are expected to remain unchanged at 4.35%.
Buy
TradingAUDUSD
EXP
0.70651
Entry Price
0.71800
TP
0.69900
SL
0.70563 -0.00046 -0.07%
0
Point
Flat
0.69900
SL
CLOSING
0.70651
Entry Price
0.71800
TP
The Australian Dollar remains firmly supported against its US counterpart on Monday, with AUD/USD holding in the mid-0.7000s and within striking distance of the two-month high at 0.7088. The latest advance has been driven largely by persistent US Dollar weakness following Friday’s surprisingly poor employment report.
US Nonfarm Payrolls declined by 23,000 in July, sharply missing expectations for an 80,000 increase. Adding to the disappointment, previous months’ employment gains were revised substantially lower, raising fresh questions about the strength of the US labor market.
The data has forced investors to reconsider expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase. Futures markets now indicate around a 44% probability of a September hike, down sharply from 67% last week, removing an important source of support for the Greenback.
For the Australian Dollar, however, Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting represents the next major test.
Markets widely expect the RBA to leave its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% after three increases already this year. Australian trimmed mean inflation accelerated slightly to 3.6% year-on-year in June from 3.5%, but remained below the 3.7% expected by economists.
That reduces the immediate pressure on policymakers to tighten again, making Governor Michele Bullock’s guidance particularly important.
AUD/USD retains an upside bias as long as expectations for Fed tightening continue to fade. A hawkish RBA message could provide the catalyst for a break above 0.7088 and potentially extend the rally toward 0.7100 and beyond. A more cautious signal from the RBA, however, could encourage some profit-taking after the pair’s recent strong advance.
Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is maintaining a firmly bullish structure on the 4-hour chart, with the pair extending its sequence of higher highs and higher lows from the late-June bottom. Price is currently trading around 0.7062 after breaking above the important 0.7050–0.7060 resistance zone, which had previously capped several upside attempts.
The immediate focus is on whether buyers can establish 0.7050 as fresh support. A sustained hold above this region would strengthen the breakout and expose 0.7080–0.7100. Beyond there, the major upside target sits around 0.7175–0.7185, where a significant supply zone remains intact.
On the downside, a move back below 0.7050 could trigger a corrective pullback toward 0.6990. This remains an important support area and the broader bullish structure should remain intact while prices hold above it. A decisive break beneath 0.6990, however, would weaken the setup and expose 0.6920–0.6930.
Overall, AUD/USD remains technically bullish following the breakout above 0.7050. In my view, a successful retest of this former resistance would reinforce the continuation setup, with 0.7100 serving as the first hurdle before a potential extension toward 0.7180.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY AUD/USD
ENTRY PRICE: 0.7065
TAKE PROFIT: 0.7180
STOP LOSS: 0.6990
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