News
7x24
Quotes
Economic Calendar
Video
Data
- Names
- Latest
- Prev.
AUD/USD Climbs as U.S. Inflation Data Meets Forecasts, Jobless Claims Spark Fed Rate Cut Bets
Traders' Opinions
Summary:
The U.S. August CPI met expectations at 2.9% YoY while jobless claims jumped unexpectedly, fueling speculation of three Fed rate cuts before year-end.
Buy
TradingAUDUSD
EXP
0.66499
Entry Price
0.68000
TP
0.65800
SL
0.66622 +0.00143 +0.22%
0
Point
Flat
0.65800
SL
CLOSING
0.66499
Entry Price
0.68000
TP
The Australian dollar staged a strong rebound against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, as investors digested a mixed batch of U.S. economic data that simultaneously confirmed persistent inflation and revealed unexpected softness in the labor market. The AUD/USD pair, which had dipped to 0.6590 earlier in the session, reversed course and pushed back toward intraday highs around the 0.6630 level.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose 2.9% year-over-year in August, in line with market expectations and a modest acceleration from July’s 2.7%. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, held steady at 3.1%, also matching consensus. On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.4%, sharply higher than the prior 0.2% and above the 0.3% anticipated.
While inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the report was not seen as alarming. Market reaction instead turned decisively after a surprise jump in U.S. Initial Jobless Claims. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits surged to 263,000 in the week ending September 6, well above both the previous week’s 236,000 and consensus forecasts of 235,000. The figure, the highest since mid-July, suggests that cracks are beginning to appear in what has been a resilient labor market.
For investors, the combination of inflation aligned with expectations and labor data pointing to weakness reinforced the belief that the Federal Reserve is ready to accelerate its pivot toward easing. Futures markets are now fully pricing in three rate cuts before the end of the year, one at each of the Fed’s remaining policy meetings. This aggressive repricing pressured the U.S. dollar, while equity markets rallied sharply on the prospect of looser financial conditions.
The greenback’s pullback offered breathing room for the Australian dollar, which earlier in the day had come under pressure from domestic data. Australia’s September Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to 4.7% from 3.9%, suggesting households expect price pressures to intensify. While the data supports the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cautious stance, it also raised concerns about sticky inflation eroding real incomes. Initially, this weighed on the Aussie, but broader U.S. dollar weakness quickly overshadowed the domestic release.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, AUD/USD has displayed resilience near key support zones and is once again challenging a familiar ceiling around 0.6620–0.6630. The pair had initially slipped after failing to breach this barrier in earlier trading, but Thursday’s rebound signals renewed bullish momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which had entered overbought territory earlier in the week, has reset lower, allowing the pair to build fresh upward traction. Positive signals are emerging, with price action now leaning on a short-term ascending trendline that has guided the rally from August lows. A decisive break above 0.665 could open the door toward the 0.6700 and 0.6800 psychological levels, while failure to hold recent gains risks a pullback toward 0.6580.
Overall, the technical backdrop favors buyers, especially as speculative flows remain biased against the U.S. dollar. However, traders should remain cautious given the heavy event risk ahead, including further Fed commentary and upcoming U.S. retail sales figures, which could reset market expectations for growth and consumption.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY AUDUSD
ENTRY PRICE: 0.6650
STOP LOSS: 0.6580
TAKE PROFIT: 0.6800
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
Quick Access to 7x24
Quick Access to More Editor-selected Real-time News
Exclusive video for free
FastBull project team is dedicated to create exclusive videos
Real-time Quotes
View more faster market quotes
More comprehensive macro data and economic indicators
Members have access to entire historical data, guests can only view the last 4 years
Member-only Database
Comprehensive forex, commodity, and equity market data
English
English
العربية
繁體中文
简体中文
Bahasa Melayu
Bahasa Indonesia
ภาษาไทย
Tiếng Việt
Copyright © 2025 FastBull Ltd
Home News Columns 7x24 Economic Calendar Quotes Video Data WarehouseAnalysis AI Signal Pro User Agreement Privacy Policy About Us
Risk Disclosure
The risk of loss in trading financial assets such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs or crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.
No consideration to invest should be made without thoroughly conduct your own due diligence, or consult with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you, since we have not known your financial condition and investment needs. It is possible that our financial information might have latency or contains inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your transactions and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital lost.
Without getting the permission from the website, you are not allow to copy the website graphics, texts, or trade marks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belongs to its providers and exchange merchants.