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AUD/JPY Holds 109.55 Support: Can the Aussie Recover Toward 110.00?
Forex
Summary:
AUD/JPY is trading around 109.55, with the 109.50–109.55 area showing concentrated buying interest, while the pair remains under pressure after falling from above 112.00 in September....
Buy
CLOSEDAUDJPY
End Time
109.550
Entry Price
110.100
TP
109.350
SL
110.473 +0.091 +0.08%
550
Points
Profit
109.350
SL
110.100
CLOSING
109.550
Entry Price
110.100
TP
Overview
AUD/JPY has undergone a substantial correction, falling from 112.65 in early September to approximately 109.55 today, a decline of more than 2.5%. Today's price action is particularly important because the pair has reached a technically concentrated support area. Current data places AUD/JPY around 109.54–109.56, with the daily S1 at 109.50 and S2 at 109.44.
The Australian side is becoming less supportive. Market pricing has reduced the probability of an RBA November rate hike to around 20% after the latest CPI failed to generate enough upside surprise. This removes one of the main catalysts that previously supported AUD.
Japan presents the opposite dynamic. The BOJ has already lifted its policy rate to 1.25%, while several policymakers have argued that rate increases may need to occur faster as underlying inflation approaches the 2% target. Former BOJ policymaker Asahi Noguchi also expects another hike in December.
Therefore, the BUY at 109.55 is not supported by a broad fundamental AUD advantage. It is primarily a support-based M15 reversal trade, where the risk/reward comes from buying after a prolonged decline rather than attempting to call a long-term bottom.
Market Sentiment
Sentiment remains bearish overall. Investing.com currently classifies AUD/JPY as Strong Sell, with all listed moving averages from MA5 through MA200 generating sell signals. RSI is around 45, while Stochastic, CCI and Williams %R are showing bearish or oversold conditions.
However, the order-flow picture is more interesting around 109.55. OANDA's October 5 order-book analysis identifies particularly strong buy orders around the mid-109 area, with another significant concentration of demand around 108.8. Conversely, heavier sell orders appear around 110.5 and 112.0.
This creates a logical short-term rebound path from 109.55 toward 110.00–110.20. The trade becomes substantially weaker if the 109.44–109.50 support cluster fails because that would indicate that buyers are not absorbing the latest selling pressure.
Technical Analysis
Using Bollinger Bands (20,0,2), Ichimoku (9,26,52) and Stochastic (5,3,3) on M15, 109.55 is a reasonable location for a counter-trend BUY because it coincides with the current S1 region and sits close to the lower portion of the recent trading range. A bullish M15 rejection followed by a return above the Bollinger middle band would be the preferred confirmation.
With Ichimoku (9,26,52), the broader M15 structure remains bearish while price trades below the Kijun-sen and cloud. The BUY therefore needs a higher low around 109.50 followed by a Kijun reclaim. Without that, the position remains a scalp rather than a trend reversal.
For Stochastic (5,3,3), a bullish crossover from the lower zone would strengthen the setup, particularly if it occurs while price holds 109.50. The first resistance is around 109.65–109.75, followed by 110.00–110.20. Current pivot calculations place R1 around 109.65 and R2 around 109.74.
A sustained M15 break below 109.40 would invalidate the rebound thesis and expose the deeper 109.20–109.00 area.
Trade Recommendation
Entry: 109.55
Take Profit: 110.10
Stop Loss: 109.35
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
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