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Ascending Trendline and Structural Support Converge to Signal Bullish Resumption
Central Bank
Economic
Summary:
This local support level carries high technical confluence as it aligns precisely with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
Buy
TradingUSDCHF
EXP
0.78183
Entry Price
0.80100
TP
0.77300
SL
0.78162 +0.00036 +0.05%
0
Point
Flat
0.77300
SL
CLOSING
0.78183
Entry Price
0.80100
TP
President Donald Trump recently criticized ongoing legislative efforts within Congress aimed at restricting his executive war powers, the latest of which was successfully rejected by the Senate this afternoon. Amidst this domestic political friction, the geopolitical landscape remains volatile; reports from CNN indicate that the President was scheduled to receive updated military contingencies regarding Iran from Pentagon officials on Friday.
Furthermore, the President reaffirmed his commitment to maintaining a rigorous naval blockade of Iranian ports. This steadfast stance arises from growing concerns that the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy transit, may not see a reopening in the immediate future.
On the monetary front, the Federal Reserve opted to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% for the third consecutive assembly. Despite this tactical pause, the central bank implemented a notably hawkish shift in its rhetoric, upgrading its assessment of inflation from "somewhat elevated" to "elevated". This recalibration underscores the deepening concern within the Board regarding surging global energy expenditures and the persistent systemic uncertainty stemming from ongoing volatility in the Middle East.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision revealed an uncharacteristic and deep-seated division, resulting in a notable 8-4 split—marking the most significant internal friction witnessed since October 1992. While Stephen Miran advocated for a 25-basis-point cut, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan supported the hold but explicitly opposed the inclusion of any "easing bias" in the official statement. Chairman Jerome Powell characterized the outcome as a significantly tighter decision than the one reached in March, noting a growing cohort of officials who now view a rate hike as equally probable as a cut. Powell maintained a strictly data-dependent stance, suggesting that any pivot toward a more accommodative policy would require clear evidence of moderating energy prices and a de-escalation of global tariff tensions.
Simultaneously, Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel reiterated during the April assembly the bank's steadfast readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market through foreign currency acquisitions. The primary objective remains to deliberately weaken the Swiss Franc (CHF) and safeguard domestic price stability. Furthermore, Schlegel underscored that the current monetary posture remains expansive, framed within an environment of "profound uncertainty," specifically aimed at sustaining broader economic activity.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, USD/CHF has undergone a corrective move that reached the primary ascending trendline at the 0.7800 handle. This psychological level is expected to attract significant buying interest; however, a more robust structural floor is situated slightly lower at 0.7778. This local support level carries high technical confluence as it aligns precisely with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. Collectively, these factors suggest that the broader bullish trend could be poised for a resumption following this technical reset.
To confirm a renewed upward expansion, the pair must achieve a decisive close above the 100 and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs), currently tracking at 0.7854 and 0.7932, respectively. Such a breakout would likely catalyze a sharp acceleration in bullish momentum.
Our analysis of momentum oscillators provides further evidence of a potential pivot. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently tracking at the 44 level on the 12-hour chart, indicating that the pair maintains sufficient "runway" to facilitate a significant move back to the upside.
Simultaneously, the MACD has recently executed a bearish crossover, though the histogram notably lacks significant depth. With the signal lines currently oscillating just beneath the neutral threshold, a bullish crossover accompanied by a positive histogram transition would provide the final technical confirmation required for a sustained bullish impulse from this confluence zone.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 0.7816
Target price: 0.8010
Stop loss: 0.7730
Validity: May 12, 2026 15:00:00
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