Thanks to stronger-than-expected GDP and household spending data, the Australian dollar has climbed near its July highs, reducing the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year. Analysts predict that the AUD/USD pair will see a gentle upward trend until 2026. On September 10th, Liberal Party leader and opposition figure Sussan Ley​ removed Senator ​Jacinta Nampijinpa Price​ from her shadow cabinet role. The dismissal followed Price's controversial remarks about Indian immigrants, which were widely condemned as 'deeply hurtful.' Price had publicly refused to support Ley's leadership. In a radio interview, Price claimed that the Albanese government prioritizes migrants who are more likely to vote for the Labor Party, citing Indian immigrants as an example. These comments drew strong backlash from both the Indian community and members within her own party. Despite Ley repeatedly calling out the remarks as incorrect and demanding an apology, Price refused to retract them entirely, only stating that her comments were "not clear enough." She argued she was questioning the pressures of "mass migration." Additionally, at a press conference, Price said she would not stay "silent" on immigration issues and avoided expressing support for Ley's leadership, putting her at direct odds with the party leader.

Market analysts are taking a ​cautiously optimistic view​ of the latest PPI (Producer Price Index) data. Many point out that while weaker PPI data could justify a rate cut, the Federal Reserve is more focused on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). If the CPI data, due out on Thursday, also comes in soft, it would significantly boost the likelihood of a rate cut in September. However, some analysts caution that the tariff policies implemented by President ​Donald Trump​ could still drive inflation higher in the coming months, casting doubt on the case for aggressive rate cuts. In terms of market reaction, the U.S. dollar saw a brief dip after the PPI release, reflecting optimism around potential monetary easing. But that optimism remains tempered by uncertainty over the upcoming CPI figures and longer-term concerns about political challenges to the Fed's independence. Analysts at ​LH Meyer​ noted that while personnel changes may have a limited impact on the September rate decision, they could threaten the Fed's ability to resist political pressure and maintain independent monetary policy in the long run.

Overall, the August PPI data provides additional support for a Fed rate cut, but the final decision will hinge on the upcoming CPI report. Meanwhile, the Trump administration's public pressure and strategic personnel moves are forming a ​systemic challenge to the Fed's independence, which could have far-reaching implications for future monetary policy. Traders should closely monitor the upcoming CPI data and the Fed's policy statement in September, while staying alert to the growing influence of political factors on central bank decisions.

Based on the daily chart, the ​Bollinger Bands are expanding upwards with ​moving averages sloping upward​ and price trading strongly along the Bollinger Upper Band. The ​MACD​ forms a 'Golden Kiss' (bullish crossover) and continues to rise. The ​RSI is at 62, entering the bullish zone, indicating strong short-term bullish sentiment. Additionally, the price has formed a ​megaphone pattern, suggesting a high probability of further upside toward the upper edge of the pattern, around ​0.67. According to the weekly chart, the price is approaching the ​EMA200​, currently around ​0.667. The MACD also shows a 'Golden Kiss,' the RSI is at ​59​ (not yet in overbought territory), and the ​lows are gradually rising. However, historical patterns suggest that ​each time the price approaches the EMA200, it would undergo significant corrections—and this time may be no exception. Therefore, selling at highs will be recommended.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.667

Target price: 0.63

Stop loss: 0.675

Support: 0.656/0.646/0.63

Resistance: 0.667/0.67/0.7