Previously, Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran, demanding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, threatening strikes against Iran's power and oil infrastructure if this demand was not met. Iran responded assertively, vowing extensive retaliation against the oil and power facilities of U.S. allies in the Middle East. However, Trump later stated that "productive" talks had occurred with unnamed Iranian officials, leading him to postpone planned strikes on Iran's power grid by five days. An Israeli official and two individuals familiar with the matter indicated that Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf was the representative involved in the negotiations. Ghalibaf, however, promptly denied any such meetings with U.S. representatives on the X, characterizing the reports as an attempt to manipulate financial markets. Nevertheless, the Iranian Foreign Ministry signaled de-escalation, announcing that Foreign Minister Araghchi had discussed developments concerning the Strait of Hormuz with Omani counterparts, with both sides agreeing to continue consultations. In terms of fund holdings and flows, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw its holdings decrease by 4.286 tons from the previous trading day, bringing its current holdings to 1052.705 tons. Shaokai Fan, World Gold Council's Global Head of Central Banks, stated on Tuesday that gold's role as a crucial hedge against de-dollarization and geopolitical risks is encouraging central banks that were previously absent from the market to re-enter in 2026.

In the 4H timeframe, gold's Bollinger Bands are widening downwards, and moving averages are diverging bearishly, indicating a downtrend. The price is oscillating downwards between the EMA12 and the lower Bollinger Band. Failure to hold the 4300 level may lead to a further test of the 4250 and 4200 range. Conversely, a sustained hold above 4300 could propel the price towards 4500 and 5000. The MACD is on the verge of a golden cross, with the MACD line and signal line operating below the zero line. The RSI is at 35, signaling an oversold condition, which suggests the decline is ongoing but a rebound is imminent. In the 1D timeframe, after breaking below the EMA200, the price found strong support near the MA200 and has entered a short-term uptrend. It is likely to rebound towards the lower Bollinger Band and EMA12, around the 4500 and 4760 levels. The formation of two consecutive 1D lower shadow candlesticks suggests an impending rebound. The RSI is at 27, reflecting strong market pessimism. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 4250

Target Price: 5000

Stop Loss: 4000

Support: 4225, 4100, 4000

Resistance: 5000, 5100, 5600