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A Rejection at Local Support Could Resume the USDCHF Upward Move
Economic
Central Bank
Summary:
If buyers return around these levels, the pair could find an opportunity to resume its upward movement toward 0.8306, which represents the next local resistance area.
Buy
TradingUSDCHF
EXP
0.81729
Entry Price
0.83060
TP
0.80900
SL
0.81715 -0.00362 -0.44%
0
Point
Flat
0.80900
SL
CLOSING
0.81729
Entry Price
0.83060
TP
The US Embassy in Saudi Arabia updated its security alert on Tuesday, warning US citizens of potential new attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces targeting airports and critical infrastructure. Earlier headlines had suggested that Washington and Tehran were close to reaching an agreement, although Iran denied those reports, according to the IRIB news agency. These developments highlight the continued uncertainty surrounding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
US economic data showed that job openings increased in September, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Vacancies rose from 7.19 million to 7.5 million, representing a 4.5% increase compared with the previous month. The report also showed that the hiring rate advanced to 3.4% from 3.3%, while the total separation rate remained unchanged at 3.3%, suggesting that labor market activity continued to show some resilience.
Additional data revealed an improvement in factory orders, which increased by 1.8% month over month in September, compared with the 0.3% increase recorded in the previous month, according to the US Census Bureau. The improvement points to stronger demand for manufactured goods and provides another indication of economic activity across the US industrial sector.
The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to keep interest rates unchanged within the 3.75%–4.00% range in October, following the 25-basis-point (bps) increase in September. The decision reflects a more patient approach as policymakers continue to assess inflation developments and the broader economic outlook. According to CME FedWatch, traders currently assign a 78.4% probability to another interest rate increase in December.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to maintain its policy rate at 0%, with the threshold for an interest rate increase remaining relatively high as inflation stays within the central bank's price stability range of 0% to 2%. Nevertheless, demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and political instability in France could provide additional support for the Swiss franc against other major currencies, regardless of the SNB's current monetary policy stance.
SNB Vice Chairman Antoine Martin recently stated that the economic outlook remains subject to considerable uncertainty. However, he ruled out interest rate increases in the near term, pointing out that inflation remains comfortably within the central bank's 0%–2% price stability range. His comments suggest that the current inflation environment does not warrant an immediate adjustment to monetary policy, even as uncertainty surrounding global economic conditions and energy prices continues to influence the outlook. This position indicates that the SNB remains focused on its domestic inflation objectives rather than responding immediately to external risks.
Technical Analysis
USDCHF continues to trade within an ascending channel and has recently reached its lower boundary, where the 200-period moving average is also located at 0.8187. This area coincides with local support that previously attracted strong volume demand in late July, making it an important zone to monitor for a potential bullish reaction. If buyers return around these levels, the pair could find an opportunity to resume its upward movement toward 0.8306, which represents the next local resistance area.
Looking at the oscillators, the RSI has declined to 31.81, approaching oversold territory and suggesting that bearish momentum could soon begin to attract buying interest, potentially leading to an upward rebound. Meanwhile, the MACD is showing a bearish histogram that has struggled to gain further depth, increasing the possibility of a rejection near the current support area. However, its signal lines remain in bearish territory, meaning that an upward crossover in the MACD would be necessary before a new bullish impulse could develop.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 0.8165
Target price: 0.8306
Stop loss: 0.8090
Validity: Nov 13, 2026 15:00:00
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