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A Rejection at Dynamic Support Could Bring Buyers Back Into Control
Forex
Economic
Summary:
If this develops, both oscillators could begin to align with the bullish scenario, suggesting that the upward move may become the path of least resistance.
Buy
TradingUSDCAD
EXP
1.39649
Entry Price
1.41420
TP
1.38700
SL
1.39698 -0.00387 -0.28%
0
Point
Flat
1.38700
SL
CLOSING
1.39649
Entry Price
1.41420
TP
The US Embassy in Saudi Arabia updated its security alert on Tuesday, warning US citizens of potential new attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces targeting airports and critical infrastructure. Earlier headlines had suggested that Washington and Tehran were close to reaching an agreement, although Iran denied those reports, according to the IRIB news agency. These developments highlight the continued uncertainty surrounding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
US economic data showed that job openings increased in September, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Vacancies rose from 7.19 million to 7.5 million, representing a 4.5% increase compared with the previous month. The report also showed that the hiring rate advanced to 3.4% from 3.3%, while the total separation rate remained unchanged at 3.3%, suggesting that labor market activity continued to show some resilience.
Additional data revealed an improvement in factory orders, which increased by 1.8% month over month in September, compared with the 0.3% increase recorded in the previous month, according to the US Census Bureau. The improvement points to stronger demand for manufactured goods and provides another indication of economic activity across the US industrial sector.
The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to keep interest rates unchanged within the 3.75%–4.00% range in October, following the 25-basis-point (bps) increase in September. The decision reflects a more patient approach as policymakers continue to assess inflation developments and the broader economic outlook. According to CME FedWatch, traders currently assign a 78.4% probability to another interest rate increase in December.
On Tuesday, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem appeared before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance, where he stated that "further rate increases may be needed" as the war in the Middle East keeps energy prices "higher for longer." His remarks suggest that the central bank remains concerned about the potential persistence of inflationary pressures and their impact on the domestic economy.
In his prepared remarks, Macklem said he expects the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise to 3.5% by the end of the year, remain above the 3% threshold throughout 2027, and return close to 2% by mid-2028. Regarding economic growth, he projected that GDP would expand by 1% in 2026, followed by growth of 2% in both 2027 and 2028. These projections reflect the challenges facing the Canadian economy as it deals with persistent inflation and uncertainty surrounding the global outlook.
Technical Analysis
USDCAD has started to retrace lower after reaching the local high at 1.4300 on October 7. Following this latest high, price action appears to be developing within an ascending channel, and the current pullback has reached an important technical area. The pair recently touched the 200-period moving average at 1.3926, while the 100-period moving average is positioned slightly higher at 1.4006. In addition, the 200-period moving average is aligned with local support at 1.3966, which also coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This confluence of technical levels creates a relevant cluster of support that could attract buyers and trigger an upward reaction, potentially taking the pair toward 1.4142.
Looking at the oscillators, the RSI has declined to 35, approaching a level that previously held as support and prevented the indicator from moving further into bearish territory. This suggests that the current area could once again provide an opportunity for bullish momentum to recover, as occurred during the previous reaction. Meanwhile, the MACD is showing a bearish histogram that is rapidly losing depth and approaching a potential bullish crossover. Its signal lines also remain slightly below the neutral level, meaning that an upward reaction in price could push the indicator back into positive territory. If this develops, both oscillators could begin to align with the bullish scenario, suggesting that the upward move may become the path of least resistance.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 1.3965
Target price: 1.4142
Stop loss: 1.3870
Validity: Nov 13, 2026 15:00:00
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