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A New Downward Leg Could Begin from Resistance
Central Bank
Economic
Summary:
If the price fails to break through the trendline, we could see the start of a new bearish impulse from this area.
Sell
CLOSEDUSDJPY
End Time
143.497
Entry Price
142.700
TP
144.100
SL
145.032 +1.431 +1.00%
603
Points
Loss
142.700
TP
144.182
CLOSING
143.497
Entry Price
144.100
SL
The U.S. continues to negotiate trade deals while President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” remains pending approval. In the meantime, Trump has once again criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling for his immediate resignation.
In June, U.S. private payrolls fell for the first time in over two years, signaling potential headwinds for the upcoming employment report and contributing to the U.S. dollar’s decline. Data from Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) released on Wednesday showed that private-sector payrolls decreased by 33,000 in June, following a downward revision of May’s increase to 29,000. This figure was well below the market consensus of 95,000.
Economists expect Thursday’s report to show a modest increase of 110,000 nonfarm jobs in June. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate, the ISM Services PMI, and weekly initial jobless claims will be released, providing further insight into the labor market.
Meanwhile, comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda have added to the narrative of reduced aggressiveness, as remarks from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Sintra forum hinted at patience regarding rate hikes. Short-term interest rate markets are pricing in no change at the BoJ’s meeting on July 31, with a 15-basis-point hike expected by year-end.
On the trade front, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi stated on Tuesday, "Japan will not do anything that sacrifices the agricultural sector in trade talks with the U.S."
Earlier, Japan’s Agriculture Minister Shinjirō Koizumi emphasized, “We will continue working with various ministries to maximize Japan’s national interests in the context of trade negotiations with the U.S.”
The BoJ’s Tankan survey revealed that business confidence among Japan’s major manufacturers improved for the first time in two quarters during the April-June period. Additionally, businesses expect consumer prices to stay above the central bank’s 2% target for the next five years.
Further details revealed that companies anticipate consumer prices to increase by 2.4% over the next three years and by 2.3% annually over the next five years. This highlights growing inflationary pressures in Japan, which may necessitate further rate hikes from the BoJ and could provide a solid boost to the Japanese yen during the Asian session.
Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is currently in a strong uptrend, which recently reached a local low at 142.68. From this low, the price has retraced to the 100-period moving average, now located at 143.99. This level could act as significant resistance, potentially pushing USD/JPY lower again. Given that this area aligns with the local highs, it could mark the top of a descending channel, suggesting that USD/JPY could head back toward the local lows.
On the other hand, USD/JPY has reached the 66.85 level on the RSI, approaching overbought territory. This signals potential divergence, with the RSI making higher highs while the price remains pressured to the downside. This divergence suggests that the bullish momentum may be waning. If the price fails to break through the trendline, we could see the start of a new bearish impulse from this area.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 143.50
Target price: 142.70
Stop loss: 144.20
Validity: Jul 10, 2025 15:00:00
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