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$96.65 Remains the Bears’ Defensive Line, Oil Prices May Extend Decline Toward the $89.00 Area
Summary:
WTI crude oil is currently trading around $96.65, with the broader structure still remaining in a phase of corrective pullback. Although prices previously attempted to regain bullish momentum, the market continues to view the current rebound as a temporary recovery within a broader weakening trend unless the key resistance at $99.60 is decisively broken.
Sell
TradingWTI
EXP
95.573
Entry Price
86.450
TP
101.500
SL
100.866 +3.120 +3.19%
0
Point
Flat
86.450
TP
CLOSING
95.573
Entry Price
101.500
SL
Fundamentals
The recent pullback in international oil prices essentially reflects a repricing of earlier supply-tightness expectations. The main drivers behind the previous rally — including geopolitical risks, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of strong summer demand — have gradually been absorbed by the market.
At the same time, the persistently strong U.S. dollar, elevated Treasury yields, and concerns over slowing global economic growth continue to weigh on oil demand expectations. In particular, weakening manufacturing data across Europe and the United States has led markets to reassess the pace of global oil consumption growth in the coming months.
In addition, some speculative capital has begun taking profits aggressively at higher levels, further intensifying the technical correction pressure in crude prices. Market sentiment has gradually shifted from a “one-way bullish” environment toward a “high-level consolidation with bearish bias.”
Technical Analysis
From a daily chart perspective, WTI has entered a clear corrective cycle following its previous sharp rally. After approaching the psychological $100.00 level, bullish momentum began to fade significantly, while the $99.60 area has gradually formed into a key medium-term resistance zone.
As long as prices fail to establish a firm foothold above $99.60, the current structure should still be viewed as a continuation of the high-level pullback. In terms of trend rhythm, WTI is forming a series of lower short-term highs, suggesting that bears are gradually regaining market control.
On the downside, the $89.10–$86.90 range is likely to become the key target zone for this correction. This region not only corresponds to a major high-volume trading area from the previous rally, but also serves as an important support zone for maintaining the medium- to long-term bullish structure.
If oil prices can stabilize and form a base within this area later on, the market may regain the potential to resume its longer-term uptrend. Conversely, a decisive break below the $86.00 region would indicate a deeper structural breakdown of the previous bullish trend.
From a short-term indicator perspective, MACD has already formed a bearish crossover at elevated levels, while RSI has gradually slipped back below the neutral zone, suggesting that the market still lacks sufficient momentum to restart a sustained uptrend.
Overall, unless $99.60 is decisively breached, WTI is still better treated with a “bearish-on-rebounds” approach. In the near term, the market is more likely to continue testing support around the $89 area.
Should oil prices later show clear stabilization signals within the $89.10–$86.90 zone, traders may then reassess the possibility of a medium- to long-term bullish recovery. However, before that occurs, the current move is more consistent with a post-rally correction rather than the beginning of a new bullish trend.
Trade Recommendation
Trade Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 96.50
Target Price: 86.45
Stop Loss: 101.50
Valid Until: 2026-06-13 23:55
Support Levels: 95.53, 93.35, 90.96
Resistance Levels: 98.17, 99.35, 99.70
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